FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 1.0502/07.... Could test 1.0550

R: 1.0510-20 / 1.0550 / 1.0640-60
S: 1.0450 / 1.0400-390 / 1.0328

Looking at the big picture, we see that having rallied for three consecutive weeks now, from 0.9926 (14-Apr) to 1.0511 (1-May) USD-CHF is closing up on an important Resistance at 1.0550. It could possibly retrace after facing Resistance at this level. However, there is a bigger Resistance seen on the daily chart at 1.0640-60, the 50% Retracement of the fall from 1.1628 (25-Dec) to 0.9637 (17-Mar). The 21-week SMA is also at 1.0660.

The overall picture remains the same, as a big move has not been seen in the day so far. There is good Resistance at 1.0550 and at the same time a dip towards 1.0460 could attract buying interest.

A breakout of this range could decide the direction for the next week. A breakout on the upside could then possibly target 1.0641 (50% Retracement of the fall from 1.1628 to 0.9637), while a breakout on the downside would find some Support at 1.0400 and lead to a consolidation in the 1.0350-1.0450 range.

Holding:

• Long USD 10K at 1.0497, SL 1.0460, TP 1.0520

GBP-USD @ 1.9832/37... NFP ahead

R: 1.9900-20 / 1.9978
S: 1.9800 / 1.9750 / 1.9700-9675

The Cable fell during the day, but found Support at 1.9720-00 for a rally back to 1.9900. The direction for today is now mixed and indecisive till the US NFP is released. For now the market continues to range sideways between 1.9930-9630.

Within that, the immediate Support is at 1.9800, while 1.9750-25 is the stronger Support. Resistance will be faced at 1.9900-25, which also is the Max High for the day. Stronger Resistance will be faced in the region of 1.9978, if a further rise is seen.

AUD-USD @ 0.9343/47... Support at 0.9260 held

R: 0.9360-80 / 0.9415
S: 0.9260-50 / 0.9225-00 / 0.9140

The view on Aussie has not changed much during the day. Since the Support at 0.9260 has well, it has led to a rally to 0.9330 so far, which could well target 0.9380.

A break below 0.9260 could trigger a bigger collapse in the pair and target 0.9140, if the Support at 0.9225-00 also gives way.

Market Trade (at time of writing):

• Buy AUD 10K at current level, SL 0.9320, TP 0.9370

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

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These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.